China's Copper Demand Forecasting Based on System Dynamics Model: 2016-2030

Jianbo Yang, Xin Li, Qunyi Liu


This paper assumes that China's economy will be developing high, medium and low scenarios, and forecasts economic and social indicators such as total GDP, population and per capita GDP in China from 2016 to 2030. Then, predicted the demand of copper resources in China from 2016 to 2030 by the combination of system dynamics model, ARIMA model prediction and inverted U-type empirical model. The results show that: China's copper demand growth slowed down significantly from 2016-2030. From 2025-2030, China's copper resource demand is stable, into the platform of demand growth. 2030 years later, China's copper resource dem and will enter a slow decline.

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