Natural Runoff Prediction of the Yellow River in the Future Under Climate Change
Abstract
The Yellow River is the second largest river in China, and the runoff of the Yellow River in the future gains an important focus when referring to economic and social developments. The system and the rainfall-runoff models were both developed to predict the future runoff in the Yellow River. (1) Study area. In the Yellow River basin, taking Tangnaihai, Lanzhou, Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin hydrological stations as the outlets, 5 sub-basins can be defined.(2) Data. The observed watershed runoff data, rainfall data and evaporation data during 1991~2010, the downscaled precipitation and evapotranspiration data in 2020 ~2050 from multi-models used in CMIP5 (The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), including the BCCCSM1.1 model, under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5) scenario. (3) Research methods. The grey self-memory model was built as the system model, based on the grey method coupled with the self-memory method, using sequence data which were denoised by the wavelet and the information entropy theories. The two -parameter monthly water balance model was selected as the rainfall-runoff model.(4) Conclusion. According to the study area, the system and the rainfall-runoff models were calibrated and validated using the observed data during 1991~2010, and were used to predict the runoff of the Yellow River in the future under climate change in 2020 ~ 2050.Results show that, in 2020 ~2050, the cyclical variation of the runoff at the 5 hydrological stations becomes sharper, the runoff variation in the source regions of the Yellow River performs small, and the runoff at hydrological stations in the downstream Yellow River shows a decreasing trend.
Keywords
The Yellow River, Natural runoff prediction, BCC-CSM.
DOI
10.12783/dtssehs/aeme2016/7486
10.12783/dtssehs/aeme2016/7486