Scenarios Conversion Deduction Method of Natural Disaster Based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Xiao-han ZHU, Xiang-yang LI, Shi-ying WANG, Zhao-ge LIU

Abstract


Based on scenario analysis, this paper makes a definition of natural disaster scenario type and concept from different aspects, describes the mechanization of the development of natural disaster chain scenario and applies Dynamic Bayesian Network. It uses probability assessment to analyze the transformation rules in the development of natural disaster chain scenario, to make up the shortage of the traditional method to capture the dynamic changes of the natural disaster chain, and to provide support for the prediction, decision and response of the natural disasters.

Keywords


Natural disaster, Scenario, Conversion deduction method, Dynamic Bayesian network


DOI
10.12783/dtcse/cmsam2017/16384

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