Power Grid Investment Strategy and Risk Analysis Under the Reform of Transmission and Distribution Price

Abstract

Power grid investment is the prerequisite of power grid development, which is influenced by various uncertainties. Power system reform introduced the new transmission and distribution pricing mechanism, and changed grid companies’ operation and profit model. The system dynamic model of grid investment is established, and grid investment variation tendency under the interaction with transmission and distribution price, demand, regulation and so on is analyzed. The investment risk with the uncertainty of demand, construction cost and regulation is analyzed using annual cash flow method. The sensitivity analysis of uncertain factors is made through simulation, and the model rationality is verified. Scenes are generated by combining different values of uncertain factors, the variance of annual cash flow at different scenes is calculated to access the risk.