Research on Financial Risk Intelligent Early-warning Method for Colleges and Universities Based on Bayesian Classification and Delphi Method

Abstract

We carry out expert consultation by means of Delphi method to construct a financial risk early-warning index system for colleges and universities, compute the warning boundary line value of each index in the financial risk early-warning index system for colleges and universities by taking advantage of Epidata3.0 and SPSS19.0, normalize the data in the index system by making use of TOPSIS method, assess and evaluate the pilot project. We exploit Delphi method to build Bayesian classification training samples of financial risk early-warning index for colleges and universities, and construct the Bayesian classification model. We execute Bayesian classification to Bayesian classification test samples of financial risk early-warning index for colleges and universities, and then present the financial risk intelligent early-warning method for colleges and universities based on Bayesian classification and Delphi method. Empirical analysis shows that the method has good accuracy in early warning.