A PERT Schedule Planning Method Based on the Improved Time Parameter Estimation

Abstract

Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is one of the main project management methods used in electrical engineering construction. Due to indeterminacy of the criteria of the time parameter estimation and neglect of the project resource constraints, scheduling error often occurs. This paper introduces a new PERT schedule planning method based on the improvement of the time parameter estimation. Given that the planned duration of a single activity obeys distribution, the principle that time parameter estimation should follow is discussed, and then a method how to instead the most optimistic time by the least time with resource constraints is proposed, therefore the criteria of time parameter estimation are determined. Next, the distribution is fitted according to the given time parameters. Finally, cost-time linear optimization model is established, including probabilistic constraint and the buffer constraint of the distribution. The model is solved, results in the optimal planned schedule. Simulation analysis verifies the effectiveness of the improved method.