Investigation on Pupils’ Probability Literacy Based on Open-ended Assessment

Abstract

The purpose of this study aims to investigate pupils’ probability literacy in probability-related contexts. The contexts of mathematics reading are real-life probability situations and open-ended assessment is adopted to evaluate pupil’s probability thinking and reasoning. The subject includes 162 fifth graders and 158 sixth graders in Taiwan. Probability literacy consists of six components which are sample space, experimental probability, theoretical probability, probability comparisons, conditional probability and independence. Results show that there are significant correlations among these six components. Pupils perform the best in probability literacy of the sample space and perform the worst in probability literacy of the experimental probability. In general, sixth graders perform better than fifth graders. In accordance with pupils’ responses in the open-ended assessment, they indicate pupils had alternate probability thinking and reasoning. In sum, the findings of this study could be the references for mathematics curriculum and instruction of primary schools. Based on the results and findings, some recommendations and suggestions for future research and practical instructions are discussed.