AQI Prediction of Nanjing City Based on GM (1,1) Seasonal Index Model

Abstract

Prediction of Air Quality Index (AQI) is of great significance to the economic development. The air quality system is a complex system with many factors and layers, and less data is available. Therefore, GM (1,1) model is utilized to predict the AQI. However, as AQI is affected by seasonal factors, the classical GM (1,1) model cannot accurately predict it at present. The AQI of Nanjing city from 2014 to 2017 is compared with the prediction results based on classical GM (1,1) model, GM(1,1) seasonal index model and the linear regression model. The result shows that the prediction results of GM (1,1) seasonal index model is the most accurate. Finally, GM (1,1) seasonal index model is used to forecast the future trend of AQI for Nanjing from 2018 to 2022, the average AQI of each quarter is less than 50 by 2022. This paper can provide various helps for government scientific decision-making.