A Comprehensive Model for Analyzing the Opioid Crisis

Abstract

The trend of opioids abuse is spreading across the United States, causing a serious crisis in society. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model to forecast the opioid abuse in five states in the United States and propose several precautions. Based on the description of opioid abuse obtained through Artificial Potential Field method, we apply ARIMA model for forecast. To improve the model, we establish a measurement involving socio-economic factors through Analytic Hierarchy Process and optimize relevant parameters by Particle Swarm Optimization. Based on the model, we propose warning mechanism and several policies dealing with opioid abuse. Evaluation shows that proposed policies are effective, and the comprehensive model is beneficial to the management of opioid crisis.