Research on the Effect of Speculative Factors of Crude Oil Futures on Price Based on SVAR Model

Abstract

This article studies and analyzes the factors that influence international crude oil prices, including crude oil supply, crude oil demand, the US dollar index and speculation in the futures market, in order to establish the SVAR model to explore the impact of various factors on the spot price of crude oil, and by comparing with other factors to analysis the impact of speculative components on the role of crude oil prices. Finally, give the conclusion and the corresponding policy recommendations based on empirical analysis results.