SYSTEMIC DYNAMICS AND LEARNING SCENARIOS FOR PROCESS IMPROVEMENT AND REGIONAL RESILIENCE: A STUDY IN THE FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY OF SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Abstract

Integrated and systemic resilience strategies reduce vulnerability and increase adaptability to sustainable development scenarios. The paper analyzed the dynamics of the footwear industry system in the south of Brazil and generated a dynamic model to explain the processes and the projection of scenarios to simulate regional resilience capacity for ten years. The research method was qualitative modeling. Four learning scenarios were identified: value-added marketing; solid waste treatment; training of labor and exchange variation. The model provided an understanding of the factors that influence resilience, and the exchange rate is no longer a relevant factor, but the discontinuity of investments in strategic issues may compromise the resilience capacity of the region.