Study on Evaluation Method for Evacuation Capability in Risk Areas of Dam Breaks

Abstract

Taking refuge and relocation for safety is the main means for the population at risk to cope with dam-break disasters. The evacuation capability in the risk areas of dam breaks is the result of natural elements coupled with social elements. From the perspective of risk analysis, the interaction between the risk of dam-break disaster and non-engineering defense capability constitutes the evacuation capability in risk areas of dam breaks. Combining with the characteristics of dam-break disasters, influential factors of evacuation capability in risk areas of dam breaks are extracted from the natural and social aspects. On this basis, two-dimensional comprehensive evaluation index of evacuation capability in risk areas of dam breaks is preliminarily established with evacuation capability in risk areas of dam breaks as the overall target layer and the risk of dam-break disaster and non-engineering defense capability as the criterion layer. This study establishes a quantitative method and a weight determination method for all indexes and adopts linear weighted method to set up an evaluation model for the evacuation capability in risk areas of dam breaks. Through application in practical engineering, the weak links in coping with dam break emergencies of the reservoirs in the aspect of engineering or management are found out, which is of great significance to improve the management level of the reservoir dams.