Forecast on Development of China’s Air Cargo Market

Abstract

With the development of economic globalization in the past 40 years, the global air cargo industry has been maintaining a stable growth of air cargo traffic CAGR (compound average growth rate) of 4.5% and an air cargo turnover AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 6.1%. As a result of economic depression after the financial crisis in 2008, the revenue from global air cargo industry has not registered marked increases and China’s air cargo market has declined as well. However, a significant growth in China’s air cargo has appeared in these two years, driven by the development of cross-border e-commerce and air express. As of 2015, the air cargo turnover increased at a rate of 10.2% to 20.7 billion ton kilometers and the scale of China's freighter fleet has increased to 122. It is predictable that China’s air cargo turnover will remain a sustainable growth. Till the year of 2025, the scale of freighter fleet in China's civil aviation industry is expected to reach 250.