The Application of a Time Series Forecasting Model in Air Passenger Volume Prediction Research

Abstract

This paper presents a new forecasting model of time series (NFMTS). NFMTS is a set of time series forecasting models. In forecasting air passenger volume in Chengdu from 1993 to 2001, take point A (0.0002,0.8,0.0002) as the starting point of calculation, by calculating and screening, the automatic optimization search method of NFMTS can be applied to screen the optimal time series prediction model in NFMTS as Ju (0.00002,0.8,0.00002). It can not only make the predicted value of Chengdu's air passenger volume reach MSE=0 and AFER=0, but also can predict the future air passenger volume of Chengdu from 2002 to 2003. The prediction model presented in this paper is simple in calculation and easy to use. In dealing with the air passenger volume of Chengdu from 1993 to 2003. It has advantages over traditional grey model, grey neural network model and grey support vector machine model.