Model of Forecasting Water Shortage Degree

Abstract

With the development of the world economy and the increasing of the population, the demand for water resources is also increasing. However, the water resource is constantly reducing and unevenly distributed. The water shortage problem aroused more attention from the public. It’s necessary to propose a simpler method to measure the shortage degree in one country or region. By using the ratio of the water supply and water demand a model to measure the water supply capacity can be established. This paper firstly established parent model 1 to measure the water supply, and model 1 includes three sub models: population prediction model, water resource per capita model and economic coefficient model. After that, another parent model 2 was established to estimate the demand for the water. Many factors like population, GNP and agricultural irrigation water can greatly impact the water demand. The data from different regions were obtained to evaluate the water shortage degree in China. By using the forecasting model, we can predict the water shortage situation of North China in 2030.