The Quantitative Research and Evolution Analysis of Energy Economy in Sichuan Province

Abstract

Energy is an important pillar for the survival and development of human beings. Based on the theory of econometrics and model technology, this paper studies the intrinsic compliance of the key indicators of energy economy in Sichuan province, and reveals the change law of the variables. At first, according to the relevant literature at home and abroad and the historical experience of screening and the key indicators of energy economy in Sichuan; secondly, verified the stationary and cointegration variables; then according to Grainger causality theory, the causal relationship between variables is analyzed. Finally, the VAR model is established and the energy consumption of Sichuan province is analyzed. Research results show that: GDP, capital investment and scientific and technological progress in Sichuan province are the important factors that influence the energy consumption of Sichuan province which plays an important role to predict the energy consumption of Sichuan province; expected Sichuan's energy consumption in the next 3 years will maintain a rapid growth momentum.