Methods and Results of Forecasting the Rating Indicators at the University

Abstract

The paper deals with the problem of constructing a system of rating indicators to stimulate the work of the teaching staff of a higher educational institution. To predict the total amount of incentives, a comprehensive methodology has been proposed that contains four modules: modeling the values within the existing range in the previous period; modeling the values of a new indicator based on the assumptions entered using the generator of a random number; excluding the range of values of remote indicators; modeling new values on the basis of studying a modern trend of indicators. The presence of a flexible information structure in the form of a hypercube and a complex mathematical model has made it possible to carry out a computational experiment for predicting the values of group and individual indicators. In the course of the experiment, the structural stability of the values has been revealed, which has not lead to a great change in the quantitative ratio between the groups of indicators.